The NFL season is officially in sudden death mode. Only 14 teams remain. And somehow, 3 or 4 (or 5 now?) of these playoff coaches are playing for their jobs. How does that happen? Because fans are wild. Nick Sirianni took the Eagles to the Super Bowl, then followed it up with and 11-win season, and while I don’t think the Eagles would fire him even if they lose in the Monday finale of Super Wildcard Weekend, the very fact that it’s been suggested is silly.
When I say May All Your Teams Win or Your Coaches be Fired, you all know that’s a joke, right? And that the joke is about this very thing? And that the joke is on the fans who want their team’s coach fired for their alleged grave incompetence that leads the team deep into the playoffs but not enough Super Bowl wins? Le sigh.
Let’s get to some predictions! As always, may all your teams win or play their game on Peacock so you won’t even know who won because based on what I’ve seen on social media, I might be the only person in the world who has Peacock. Maybe I should live blog on Saturday night so everyone can watch vicariously through me while still feeling righteous for sticking it to Big Football.
Saturday, January 13, 2024
Cleveland Browns (11-6) @ Houston Texans (10-7)
3:30 PM, NRG Stadium, NBC and Peacock
Prediction: Browns 27-17
Imagine someone telling you last August that the Browns would decide to sit Joe Flacco in week 18 to keep him fresh for the playoffs. Or that the team would be considered a top 5 force in the entire NFL after losing both Deshaun Watson and Nick Chubb to season-ending injuries.
The Texans have had a fairy tale season on the backs of a ton of young talent. They could be good for a long time. But losing Tank Dell for the year was huge. He would have been an X-factor in this game if he was able to play in it.
This will be the battle of who I (and sportsbooks) believe to be the top 2 Coach of the Year candidates, and both are well-deserving. Neither were dealt a great hand, but both got some key young players to play far beyond their years. This will be an exciting start to Super Wildcard Weekend. Ultimately, it’ll come down to whether Flacco keeps the magic going, and despite all of my better judgment, I somehow think he will.
Miami Dolphins (11-6) @ Kansas City Chiefs (11-6)
7:00 PM, Arrowhead Stadium, Only Peacock *Gasp*
Prediction: Dolphins 36-28
I know, it’ll be really cold and presumably that should benefit the home team, right?
But if I had to pick the running and short passing game of one team, it would be the Dolphins. Raheem Mostert should be back, Tyreek Hill should be back, De’Von Achane and Jaylen Waddle are healthy-ish, and all Tua Tagovailoa needs to do is get it in their hands in space.
Despite both missing time, Mostert and Achane combined for 1,812 yards and 5.8 yards per carry and 32 total TDs. Penguin and Cheetah combined for 191 catches for 2,813 yards and 17 TDs. Those 4 players only appeared in 6 games together in the regular season.
As for the Chiefs, one would think a below zero temperature forecast couldn’t possibly help them avoid the dropsies that have plagued them all season, right? Er no?
There’s something mentally significant about having to concentrate more on catching a pass due to extenuating circumstances. Like when Antonio Freeman had drop issues, then broke his arm, then came back wearing a cast and suddenly he was catching everything.
Sidenote: Antonio Freeman’s Cast is my new permanent fantasy football name.
My point is, distraction is a powerful way to get out of our own heads. Many will expect a low scoring affair. I think it’ll be exactly the opposite.
Sunday, January 14, 2024
Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) @ Buffalo Bills (11-6)
12 noon, Highmark Stadium, CBS
Prediction: Steelers 17-16
Did I lose you? I bet I did. This prediction isn’t meant as a hot take. I’m not edgy. I don’t dislike The Beatles. This is my real gut feeling about this game based on no statistical analysis or advanced metrics.
Buffalo is an erratic team and that makes what feels like a trap game at home against the Steelers in some potentially ridiculous weather a major obstacle for them.
This prediction could easily fall flat, especially with T.J. Watt out, and the Bills could put up 50 and Steelers fans will get right back on the Fire Tomlin train. If that happens, I think the Ravens may be the only team left that can stop Buffalo.
But there’s something consistent about the Steelers, and in the playoffs and in inclement weather, I’m more likely to expect a consistent nail-biter win than an erratic blowout win. That former dynamic favors Pittsburgh. For all the faults some fans find in Mike Tomlin, he’s as consistent as we may ever see.
Green Bay Packers (9-8) @ Dallas Cowboys (12-5)
3:30 PM, AT&T Stadium, Fox
Prediction: Cowboys 31-20
This one hurts, but somehow the Packers losing to the Cowboys with Mike McCarthy at the helm hurts a bit less. Probably not a lot of Packers fans feel that way, but speaking of way, I drive down Mike McCarthy Way semi-infrequently and I appreciate everything he gave to the Packers and this community.
The Packers come into this game relatively healthy, and by relatively I mean they aren’t missing any critical players they haven’t been able to win without. The main names on the injury report are Christian Watson (questionable, limited practice all week) and A.J. Dillon (doubtful, hasn’t practiced all week). Watson is hit-or-miss pretty much every week, and Dillon’s pounder role is far more important for outdoor games above the Mason-Dixon Line, which could only happen if they meet Philly in the NFC Championship.
*Late Injury Update: Jaire Alexander suffered an ankle injury during practice on Wednesday and is listed as questionable. That’s a big loss heading into a matchup with Ceedee Lamb.
I don’t think they’ll have to worry much about that, though. Dallas’s offense is humming and Dak Prescott is the MVP in a lot of other seasons. I could see him and CeeDee Lamb both taking home hardware some year.
The most important factor will be how Green Bay’s offensive line manages whatever Dan Quinn does with Micah Parsons. If they can keep Jordan Love relatively clean, he has plenty of weapons. But a universal NFL truth is that youth is consistently inconsistent, and the Packers are the youngest team to ever make the playoffs.
Los Angeles Rams (10-7) @ Detroit Lions (12-5)
7:00 PM, Ford Field, NBC
Prediction: Rams 41-35 (OT)
Every year there’s a team you watch in week 15-ish and you think, do not let this team in the playoffs. For a lot of people, that was the Bills this year. For me, it was the Rams.
There are plenty of fresh faces for LAR from the team that won the Super Bowl, but there are also a few familiar ones. Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and Aaron Donald are all healthy, and it could easily be argued that trio was the most important in that run. In week 1, I noted that those 3 players are mostly all that’s left from the Super Bowl team, and Stafford and Kupp have struggled to stay healthy. But they’re healthy and surrounddd by some surprising young talent.
They add in rookie WR sensation Puka Nacua and a running game with Kyren Williams that even the Champ Rams lacked. Alaric Jackson has finally solidified Stafford’s blindside for the first time since Andrew Whitworth retired. They’ve got really good pieces; some of those pieces are young and hungry, and some of those pieces have rings they’re bragging about to the young players.
The Lions are an enigma to me at this point. Like most teams, they were streaky, but the end of the season was all over the place. A Broncos blowout right after getting beat down by the Bears, then 2 wins over the Vikings sandwiching a bizarre loss to the Cowboys. I don’t know how anyone extrapolates anything from that.
In any case, you can bet the leadup and plenty of in-game conversation will revolve around Stafford and Jared Goff. I’m not interested in picking a trade “winner,” as I think that may have been one of the more mutually beneficial trades ever. Maybe it fully pays off for the Lions this year or maybe that’s still down the road, but it’s a win for them regardless.
Monday, January 15, 2024
Philadelphia Eagles (11-6) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8)
7:00 PM, Raymond James Stadium, ABC/ESPN
Prediction: Buccaneers 24-21
So much of this game rides on the health of Jalen Hurts. And I really despise predicting an outcome without knowing if an injury to such a significant player is serious. And if it is, will he sit out and hope Marcus Mariota can deliver for a week? Or will he try to tough it out with an injured finger on his throwing hand, not realizing it makes him a liability?
On the other side, Baker Mayfield had himself a year. Before the season, I said he would throw 4000-30-10 and get a 9 figure deal with the Vikings for 2024. He ended up throwing 4044-28-10 and the NFC North better hope he stays away from the Vikings.
Both teams have strong pieces and glaring holes on defense. But if Hurts is limited and the Eagles trot him out there anyway, Tampa could have themselves a day.
Well done Travis. I like your post. Our predictions are very different though. You and I only agreed on two games this weekend, the Browns and the Cowboys. So far, the Browns already lost. Have fun and good luck on Sunday!
Thanks,
Reid
I’m 0-2 so far! 😂 Honestly, I don’t even know why I add the prediction. Just for fun, I guess. I just like the narratives surrounding games and watching to see how they play out.