With just five weeks left in the NFL season, we’ve reached the final week of byes before a four-game stretch deciding who’s in, who’s out, who gets a home game, and who gets the top pick to possibly pair with a new head coach.
We’ve already waived goodbye to Robert Saleh, Dennis Allen, and Matt Eberflus. In the coming weeks, questions will swirl about Doug Pederson, Brian Daboll, and Antonio Pierce. There may be misguided chatter about Zac Taylor and Mike McCarthy, even as the former was a play away from a Super Bowl ring and the latter, who already has a ring, leads an improbable late season run to keep the Cowboys playoff hopes alive.
And through it all, I’ll continue to wish you luck and for your teams to win. Because I want that for you and because this is a fickle league, and because sometimes all it takes is a silly play to get your coaches fired.
Advice for NFL coaches on time management: If you get the yips and can’t decide if now is a good time to call a timeout, call the timeout. Like now. Or now. Seriously, just call it. Ope, missed your chance, and now you’ve been fired.
Week 14 Power Rankings
*Note: Rankings are from before the Thursday night game between the Lions and Packers, but I’ve adjusted their records for accuracy based on publish time. It’s entirely likely the rankings would remain where they are.
1. Detroit Lions (12-1)
Clearly last week’s win over the Bears was not their finest performance, but it’s worth noting how good the Bears actually are compared to the league outside the NFC North. To be 3-0 in that division right now is an accomplishment, no matter the scores. Considering the ways they’ve beat down the rest of the league, those close scores only serve to reinforce the difficulty of playing anyone in the division.
2. Buffalo Bills (10-2)
The last two weeks showed the importance of home field for a team like the Bills. They are absolutely built for January in Buffalo. With a win two weeks ago against the Chiefs and only a game behind them in the AFC, playoff home field advantage is closer than ever.
3. Philadelphia Eagles (10-2)
Weeks and weeks ago the Eagles were all but written off as a team getting wins but not a Super Bowl contender. I’m not sure when the shift happened, but I think it was sometime between when Saquon Barkley spun around one guy and then backwards hurdled over the next. Just remember I was on this train way before all this.
4. Kansas City Chiefs (11-1)
It’s like they’re trying to see how close they can get to losing and still pull out a win. Like, their win probability wasn’t low enough when they had to block a field goal against the Broncos in week 10, and the weren’t satisfied with needing a game-winning drive against the Panthers, so someone crossed their fingers and hoped the Raiders center would snap it off Aidan O’Connell‘s face when Vegas was in position to kick a winning field goal.
Unfortunately for the Chiefs, their schedule is about to get brutal. I’m not kidding when I say the 2024 Chiefs could turn into the 2023 Eagles. They peaked too early, and since then, they lost to the Bills and barely snuck by two teams almost at the bottom of my rankings. Now they’ve got the surging Chargers, then the Browns, Texans, Steelers, and a rematch with the Broncos in Denver.
5. Minnesota Vikings (10-2)
Kirk Cousins is coming home to Minnesota this week. Unfortunately, his homecoming carries with it a league-leading 13 interceptions and his replacement, Sam Darnold, riding at 5th in the league in TD passes. Not how Kirk saw this going.
Luckily for the Falcons, the Hockenson Effect is in full swing again as T.J. Hockenson got 6 more worthless targets last week that took touches away from Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and Aaron Jones… you know, guys who might be able to do something with the ball in their hands.
6. Green Bay Packers (9-4)
This division is just so good. Even a Packers loss to the Lions could put three NFC North teams in the top 5 if the Chiefs stumble. And don’t look now, but Jordan Love has only thrown one interception since their week 8 bye. He had time to heal and the team had time to sort through some issues.
The Packers are once again setting themselves up to be the team no one wants to play in the playoffs, as well as a team that will likely have to play a road game against a team with a worse record.
7. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-3)
Russell Wilson to George Pickens is a cheat code. Even better for the Steelers is that Justin Fields is watching this… meaning he got six games to try it out himself, and then he got to watch a future Hall of Famer show him everything he’s missing. I know there will be a lot of questions about the Steelers QB situation next year, but for this year, I sincerely think they have two QBs who could lead a Super Bowl run.
Btw, it took him a little time to get the playing time necessary to show his stuff, but my 2023 DROY preseason pick, Nick Herbig, currently has 4.5 sacks and 4 forced fumbles. He’ll be an absolute force with more playing time.
8. Baltimore Ravens (8-5)
Does anyone need a bye this week more than the Ravens? Get healthy, get your heads right. This is the most talented team in the league and I truly don’t think it’s even close, but they badly needed a break. They get a nice ease-in game next week at the Giants, then it’s the stretch into the playoffs.
I still think Lamar Jackson is the league MVP and I can’t believe Josh Allen is being compared to him. Unless, of course, you consider team wins as a QB stat, in which case, you’re going to hate my website.
9. Los Angeles Chargers (8-4)
I’m considering doing a fun mock redraft or some kind grading of either my mock draft or the real draft. Whatever I decide, I remembered that I had Brock Bowers going to the Chargers at pick 5 and I feel like I would grade that prediction very high considering what Bowers has done with the Raiders. But one of my other sleepers on draft day was Ladd McConkey, who basically fills a similar role as a possession guy, inside the numbers and moving the chains.
I’ll have to put some thought into whether one would be better than the other, would having both right now dilute both of their performances, and would it be worth it to lose out on their actual pick, Joe Alt, who has been as advertised despite playing on the right side? Alt and LT Rashawn Slater have been one of the best OT combos in the league this season, and both will only get better. That sounds like it’s exactly what Jim Harbaugh wants… left and right sides of the offensive line are locked in for the next decade to protect Justin Herbert.
I don’t know what the Chargers will do this season, but they’re set up to be really good for a long time.
10. Washington Commanders (8-5)
Heyyyy I remember these guys! It’s not easy to start at QB as a rookie, but you know what’s even less easy? A rookie QB going through a rough 5-week stretch like Jayden Daniels and the Commanders with two barely wins followed by three losses, during which Daniels played his worst football of the season… then hitting December in stride and lighting up the Titans defense for 3 TDs and an 83% completion percentage. That’s the guy from earlier in the season, but not all young QBs can find their way back like that.
It also helps to have Scary Terry McLaurin having a career year and outperforming his contract extension. That’s looking like a great investment.
