Super Wildcard Weekend is in the books and I went a humble 1 for 6 on my picks. Special thanks to the Bucs for salvaging my dignity at the end, albeit in far more decisive fashion than I expected.
I’m as annoyed this year as I was last year that the NFL still hasn’t come up with a better name than divisional playoffs, so brace yourself for my annual rant. Not only is it boring, but there’s literally no teams playing an opponent from their division. This is further proof that the NFL isn’t scripted, because no writer worth anything would allow that name to stick around.
Hang on, here’s your anchors if you would rather skip to the games. I’m not done with this topic yet.
Look at the names of WWE things. That’s what writers can do. But when it’s an unscripted sport (nothing against WWE, it’s great at what it is), apparently we get stuck with divisional playoffs. Get it together NFL people, we’re in the Taylor Swift times now. You gotta come hard with this. We’ve got 2 great rivalries this weekend and potentially the start of 2 more, and they deserve better.
Now let’s get to some picks! Last week I led with the prediction, then started writing and talked myself into about a dozen changes. So in the interest of efficiency, predictions will come at the end this time.
As always, may all your teams win or have to tell everyone they only made it to the divisional playoffs. And then feel like a clown trying to explain why it’s called that.
Saturday, January 20, 2024
Houston Texans (11-7) at Baltimore Ravens (13-4)
3:30 PM, M&T Bank Stadium, ABC/ESPN
Let’s start with a little fire. I don’t think I’ll ever understand benching a QB when the team has their playoff seed locked. I know everyone has a different opinion, but especially when the locked seed includes a bye, it’s just too much time outside of a routine that was working so well.
The Ravens were on a 6-game streak, including 3 impressive wins against playoff teams, and had the 1st round bye week sealed up. And then they sealed up Lamar Jackson, who hasn’t played in a live game since New Years Eve.
Maybe this is one of the few remaining yelling at the clouds takes left in my arsenal, but C.J. Stroud is lighting up the football world and Lamar, who was also lighting up the football world, hasn’t seen a live opposing defense in 21 days.
All that said, Lamar is just too good. I tried, but I can’t talk myself out of the Ravens. Even if the offense needs a quarter of 2 to knock some rust off, the defense is more than capable of providing that.
Prediction: Ravens, 37-27
Green Bay Packers (10-8) at San Francisco 49ers (12-5)
7:15 PM, Levi’s Stadium, NFL on Fox
I’m not especially fond of the Packers once again building a team that’s probably better suited to play on the road in January. But here we are, and that’s literally my only complaint about the vision brought to Green Bay by Brian Gutekunst and Matt LaFleur.
It’s so tempting to pick the Packers to win. My fandom aside, you’d have to be under a rock to have missed all the excited pundit chatter about the youngest playoff team in NFL history. The team that went on the road to beat the unbeaten-at-home Cowboys and now face the Niners, led by Brock Purdy, who also hasn’t seen a live opposing defense in 21 days.
But for 2 reasons, I won’t be talking myself into that today. First, I am just awful at game predictions. Ask me to tell you if a QB has a future or what terms a player’s contract might include, and I’m confident I can swing close. But game predictions are a crapshoot. So if I want the Packers to win, and I predict they’ll win, they have a less than zero percent chance of winning. I don’t make the rules.
And also, the Niners are really good. Outside of a rough early season stretch, the only team that made them look human was the Ravens. And much like the Ravens, the Niners defense is good enough to hold off an early Packers surge while the offense sorts out whatever remedial scheme Joe Barry throws at them.
I expect the Packers to come out firing the way they did last week, but holding that focus for 60 minutes is a tall task for a young team that’s already far exceeded my expectations.
Prediction: 49ers, 41-27
Sunday, January 21, 2024
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-8) at Detroit Lions (13-5)
2:00 PM, Ford Field, NBC
Battle of the cast aside number 1 picks. It’s strange to see a team give up on their number 1 overall pick QB and for that player to be successful elsewhere. Stranger still is to have that happen to both QBs about to meet in a playoff game for their latest team.
But Jared Goff and Baker Mayfield are built different. I don’t know if they’re friends, but I feel like they would be. Goff is on just his second team after leading his first to a Super Bowl, while Baker is on team number 4 after a weird stint in Carolina and a dime to Van Jefferson in Los Angeles. I know he played other games there, but that’s the only one that matters to me and my delusions.
Unfortunately for Baker, Goff has a running game. He has a guy in Jahmyr Gibbs who can work in space as well as Rachaad White, and a guy in Devin Montgomery who can run between the tackles way better than Rachaad White.
Please, Tampa Bay, stop slamming that poor man between the tackles.
Prediction: Lions 20-17
Kansas City Chiefs (12-6) at Buffalo Bills (12-6)
5:30 PM, Highmark Stadium, CBS
There are few teams that have inspired more opinions in a single season than the Chiefs and Bills.
I’ll keep this short, cause we only have 13 seconds left. The Bills rode into the playoffs on a giant wave of momentum. How big was it? On Thanksgiving weekend, I posed this question on Facebook.
Final tally was defense 31, offense 14. On the day I asked this question, the Bills had just lost to the Eagles to fall to 6-6, and the Jags had just beaten the Texans to go to 8-3. Many of the responses I got said the question was moot because the Bills wouldn’t make the playoffs, and it seemed clear the Jags would.
Buffalo had a bye week, then ripped off 5 straight wins to finish 11-6 and win the AFC East. Jacksonville lost 5 of their last 6 and missed the playoffs.
I know the Chiefs won an important game in impressive fashion against Miami last week, but Miami didn’t even look like they wanted to be there. I don’t know if KC has enough left in the tank this year to stop the rampage in Buffalo.
Prediction: Bills, 28-17
I apologize in advance to the fans of all the teams I picked to win.
I love that you mentioned the names of WWE events. Imagine if the NFL had the guts to name a playoff round something close to No Way Out or Survivor Series. Now they’d be cooking.
Nice nod to the Chiefs/Bills 13 seconds!
I guess I’m on the other side of the play Lamar Jackson discussion. I do get your point – not playing since New Year’s Eve isn’t ideal. But if I had to take that or an offensive tackle stepping on his ankle in a meaningless game, I’ll take the 3 weeks off.
I’ll be cheering for your Packers tonight. You never know what can happen.
I totally get the “he might get hurt” argument. I just see it as something that’s a part of football. But it’s looking like the Ravens defense did exactly what j thought they would. They kept Houston in check until Lamar knocked off all the rust. And now he’s back in the groove and dominating.
You’re 2-0 and halfway to a perfect divisional round record. I thought the Packers showed us how vulnerable the 49ers can be. Mind you, I only caught the game from late third quarter on but San Fran can be had . . . I think.
I want the Lions to win it all now. Or the Bills.
That was definitely a troubling showing by the Niners. They came through, but yeesh. They better hope it was just bye week rust. Baltimore had some too in the first half, but by the second, they were as dominant as always.
Yeah, I would really love to see the Lions win today and next week but we’ll see.
I think the winner of Chiefs Bills is going to the Super Bowl.
You take away President Thee Stallion from me and now you disrespect the Ravens?? Thin ice, bud 😂
I won’t share my predicted score for Chiefs Ravens then LOL