Every remaining NFL playoff team is the team of destiny.
Lamar Jackson is destined to lead the Ravens to a Super Bowl and prove his doubters wrong. Patrick Mahomes is destined to win his 3rd Super Bowl at just 28 years old, the 2nd youngest to ever accomplish the feat.
Brock Purdy could go from Mr. Irrelevant to Super Bowl winning QB, perhaps even Super Bowl MVP, forever altering our perception of the last-pick-in-the-draft moniker. Jared Goff could show the Rams they threw him away too quickly as the Lions try to break a curse that’s as old as the NFL. And he would do it with a charmingly calm swagger, as if he knew all along.
Every fan of every team has a story they could write, and all of those stories are worthy. That’s what makes this league so great.
It’s why 4th and 26 and Wide Right have their own Wikipedia entries, the latter of which has since been updated as of a week ago (sorry Bills Mafia). Teams of destiny, torn down by the improbable.
More stories will be written this weekend, so don’t miss a second. As always, may all your teams win or… holy crap, are we still talking about firing coaches? No wait, these 4 are all pretty safe. Phew.
Sunday, January 28, 2024
Kansas City Chiefs (13-6) at Baltimore Ravens (14-4)
2:00 PM, M&T Bank Stadium, CBS
Is this a trap? It feels like a trap. If the Ravens were playing Buffalo, I would be more concerned because until last week, the Bills couldn’t miss anything. And then they missed everything.
The Chiefs, on the other hand, sort of stumbled into this. Not that they don’t deserve it; they absolutely earned their spot in this game, but it’s sort of in the same way the Eagles earned the 10-1 record they had at one point. You feel like they should be beating people up and they’re not, but they’re winning, so it shouldn’t matter. But somehow it does.
However, the ways they’re winning aren’t insignificant. These are good teams they’re beating, and they’re doing it in whichever way they need to. Buffalo struggled to stop the running game, so Andy Reid quadrupled down on it and hammered them with Isiah Pacheco when they needed it.
On the other side, the Ravens pretty much did exactly what I thought they would. The offense looked rusty in the 1st half against the Texans, but the defense kept it close until Lamar and his guys hit a groove. Now I don’t know how you stop this train.
Mahomes has a talent for stopping trains like he did last weekend, but he hasn’t faced a defense like the 2023 Ravens. Roquan Smith needs to officially change his position to Defensive QB and ask for QB pay. That’s how good he is, and how good everyone around him is as a result of his leadership.
If the Ravens can bottle up a QB like Mahomes on a potential “greatest ever” track, the entire defense may be in reach of that title themselves.
Prediction: Ravens, 41-17
Detroit Lions (14-5) at San Francisco 49ers (13-5)
5:30 PM, Levi’s Stadium, Fox
I’m so excited for this game for a lot of reasons, but the main one is because it presents the possibility of my favorite what-if games which I call Counterfutuals. Shoutout to one of my Facebook friends for delivering that gem for me.
What if… Brock Purdy underperforms but the team wins?
Counterfutual Scenario: The Niners win by a field goal but get a score and constant good field position from the defense. Purdy throws for 150 yards, a TD, and 3 picks, the last of which comes on their first attempt at a game-winning drive. But with a minute left, he hits 2 long passes and Jake Moody hits a 59 yard field goal to win it.
Here’s why I love this: Every single NFL fan will have a different story to tell about that game. Even most Niners fans will have variation on what to take from the game.
Some will say he delivered in the clutch. Some will focus on the kicker and the defense providing a spark when they needed it. Others will start wondering if he starts next season as the starting QB.
Next year is when the team will have to start discussing his pay going forward. Is he a starter or a really good backup? Is he Steve Young or Steve Bono? Is the cat alive or dead? (Hint: it’s both). How do you move on from a guy who’s an MVP finalist?
This will be a definitive game for Purdy and he’ll have to do it without Deebo Samuel. But George Kittle, Christian McCaffrey, and Brandon Aiyuk are more than capable of causing problems without Deebo there.
On the Lions side, they’re built so well for this. The weapons on offense are being used to perfection by Jared Goff, who people still seem to think is replaceable. You need to accept right now that Dan Campbell is not replacing this guy.
I have concerns about the Lions secondary matching up with the Niners, so no Deebo has to be a huge relief for Aaron Glenn’s defense. Alim McNeill and Aidan Hutchinson are forces the NFC will have to deal with for years. This is a chance for them to make a real statement, because the secondary needs Purdy to be hassled all night.
If this game is close in the 4th quarter and the Niners go on a critical drive, watch Hutchinson closely. The great pass rushers always have something they’ve been saving for the right moment, and he’s shown the ability to be patient and understand how to identify that moment.
My biggest concern is if anyone tells them the Ravens won the first game. In 2021, several weeks before the comeback against the Vikings in the video above, the Lions almost broke their losing streak as they led the Ravens 17-16. The only way the Ravens could win would be if Justin Tucker could hit an NFL record 66 yard field goal. And then he did, in all the dramatic fashion he could possibly muster.
The next time the teams met was earlier this year, when Lamar Jackson put in a clinic and the Lions could barely get out of the gate. If they know the Ravens are coming, they can’t let the anticipation of that seep into their heads.
This might be the hardest playoff game to predict. As a reminder, I got 5 out of 6 wrong on Super Wildcard Weekend, then got 3 out of 4 right in the Divisional Playoffs, putting me at 4-6. So if I get both of these games right on Saturday, I’ll have made an improbable comeback to .500 going into the Super Bowl. The stakes are high.
With sincerest apologies to my Niners fan brother-in-law…
Prediction: Lions, 28-27
If this happens, I needs Lions fan friends to prepare yourselves, cause you’ll be spending the next 2 weeks seeing that Tucker field goal about a thousand times. Just remember, that was the lowest of the low points, and when your story started. Your version of your team of destiny.
I agree with you on KC vs Baltimore. If it’s close, watch out because 15 behaves like Montana on speed. But if this game is ‘destined’ to be a blowout, then LJ and his crew are probably going to be the team doing the damage there. And do you really think people still doubt Lamar?
As for the Lions, I just think it would be the most fun scenario. Winning it all would be nuts, but even just being in the big game after all this time would be great. And Wayne Fontes was the coach of the Lions the last time they made it to the conference title game, right? My God . . that seems like another lifetime ago!
Oh yeah, Lamar still has tons of doubters. If you polled all football fans and asked them if Lamar can read a defense at an NFL level, it might be 50-50. The best way I’ve come up with to describe it is that if you drew a Venn of fans who think he’s just another running back and fans who think 30 seconds a game of Taylor Swift is ruining football… it’ll be very close to a circle. Some people just need something to hate.
I glossed over all the “question marks” brought up about him for years, thinking they would fade as he accomplished more. But then earlier this year a Fox Sports person said of Lamar that she wants her “quarterbacks to be quarterbacky.” I think we’re at the point where we can just call it what it is.
That sucks. Lamar is such a special player. And to think, he has been doubted since he came out of school. Didn’t he go in the second round of the draft? Miami, one of many teams to pass on him.
Well I want my quarterback to be what Lamar Jackson has become.
The only reason I can’t root for the Ravens is Harbaugh. He’s a great coach and odds are he wins his second title, but I can’t get past him talking shit about how the Dolphins put Tua in harm’s way last year. He questioned McDaniels and the staff and that wasn’t cool.
That aside, if Lamar wins it, he passes Burrow in terms of the QB to challenge Mahomes in this era. For now, of course as it is a work in progress. Mahomes stands alone but he will have competition, as all the greats did.
Close, he was pick 32, last of the 1st round, which kinda surprised people cause they traded up to get him and they still had Flacco. It’s possible he could’ve gone earlier if he was open to position change, but the Chargers asked him to run WR drills at the combine and he declined.
Wow! I just looked it up and four quarterbacks were taken ahead of Jackson that year. Allen and maybe Baker . . okay I get it. But Rosen and Darnold were in the top ten as well and nope. Of course, the Ravens didn’t know Jackson was going to be this. They chose a tight end with their 25th pick. Hell, nobody REALLY knows. But to their credit, they bet on him and it worked out.
There are many who believe in picking more than one QB in every draft or in drafting one every year. I think Miami has to start thinking in that way.
I had no idea about the Chargers story.