2024 NFL Week 4 Power Rankings

Whoever writes this script went rogue last week. Any power rankings or inkling of what might be happening around the league imploded last Sunday, and we’re back to a simple truth: We just don’t have enough information.

So what’s the magic number of weeks before predictions can be based on an acceptable sample? There is none. Because as I used to hear on Sportscenter throughout my childhood from the great Chris Berman, “That’s why they play the games.”

As it seems to be a running theme, the running game took center stage in several games, including a huge showing from Saquon Barkley to score both of the Eagles and the 2-point conversion that put them up by a field goal. More on that later. First, your TOC, because I’m nice like that.

Before diving in, a gentle reminder that a win or loss doesn’t guarantee movement in the rankings. This isn’t a college football poll. It’s a snapshot of where I think a team is right now relative to other teams.

For example, you can glance at that list and see Baltimore, a team for which I don’t hide my love, won their game but still dropped a spot. If you asked me for a Super Bowl prediction right now, I’d still say Baltimore because that’s where I think they’ll be in January and February, but they aren’t currently there in this end-of-September snapshot.

Speaking of snapshots, for a recap of last week’s action, check out this rundown from The Captain’s Speech. Then come back, cause I’ll miss you.

As always, may all your teams win or your coaches not be Doug Pederson.

1A. Kansas City Chiefs (3-0) ⇔

It’s worth noting there are parts of the Chiefs that are a bit shaky. The reason it’s worth noting is because last season, we watched Philly jump out to 10-1 all while hearing each week that something was wrong. Meanwhile, KC got off to a slow start last year and turned it on in the second half of the season, a tried and true way to ride momentum to and through the playoffs.

I’m not saying there’s something wrong here. By all accounts, the defense looks solid and Patrick Mahomes is mostly himself, despite an uptick in picks. But losing Isiah Pacheco for what I assume will be the rest of the season is a huge blow.

There’s also the question marks of why Travis Kelce has seen so few looks from Mahomes this year, but it doesn’t seem to slow the offense down, so I’m not terribly concerned about that. If he can cause problems as a decoy, that’s a positive. Also, dude turns 35 next week, and no amount of swagger can hold back the ravages of time.

1B. Buffalo Bills (3-0) ⇧½

I debated this quite a bit. Watching the Bills obliterate the Jags on Monday night had me considering pushing them ahead of the Chiefs. But if you asked me right now who would win between the Chiefs and Bills, I don’t think I could give a definitive answer. The only distinction I think I could make is if you asked me which team has the best chance to go 17-0, I’d say Buffalo. It’s just true.

Through 3 games, Josh Allen has completed 75% of his passes for 7 TDs and 0 INTs, as well as 2 rushing TDs. He’s fumbled twice, but only lost it once. Khalil Shakir has a 77.6 rating from PFF, good enough for 13th out of all WRs in the league. Keon Coleman is 50th, which seems like a high number, but it’s pretty good for a WR2 in the 3rd game of his career.

Perhaps most importantly, Von Miller is back, delivering a sack in each game so far. The defense looks good. There’s even still a chance for a late-season return from Matt Milano, which would be a huge boost right when everyone will expect Buffalo to falter.

3. Philadelphia Eagles (2-1) ⇔

Saquon’s biggest run didn’t feature a Circle Button, but it’s my firm belief that the threat of a Circle Button led to Marshon Lattimore looking a fool as Barkley just ran away from him. He ran hard and he ran fast. He ran over defenders, around defenders, and sometimes carried defenders. It was one of the more impressive RB performances I’ve seen in a year that has already delivered some strong ones.

On the defensive side, Philly delivered a haymaker to a Saints offense that put up 91 points in the previous 2 games.

My only real concern with Philly right now is their inability to capitalize on opportunities. Jalen Hurts threw for 311 yards and Saquon rushed for 147… how do you have only 7 points and need to score a TD with a minute left to win it?

4. Detroit Lions (2-1) ⇧4

That’s how you do it. A solid team win. Efficient QB, punishing running game, and crushing defense.

Aidan Hutchinson is already a gamebreaker. He’ll be a problem in the NFC for a long time. Brad Holmes should probably start putting hundreds in a really big piggy bank right now.

5. Minnesota Vikings (3-0) ⇧7

The biggest question mark for the Vikings coming into this season, by far, was the defense. I used past tense there on purpose. Somehow they lost Danielle Hunter and got better. I don’t make the rules, but I respect the results, and the Vikings defense is just good.

On offense, I had a feeling Sam Darnold could be good with the weapons he had around him. I didn’t expect him to be this good. What I really want to highlight, however, is my favorite player on the Vikings offense because he’s simply one of my favorite people in all of football. Aaron Jones.

As a Packers fan, it sucked seeing him go to a division rival, perhaps the Packers biggest rival until the Bears figure out how to be competitive someday. But some players are just such genuinely awesome human beings, I can’t help but root for them. It’s why I rooted for Jamaal Williams when he left for the Lions, and it’s why I root for Aaron Jones, even on the Vikings. He represents everything football should be about.

I believed that yesterday. And I believe it even more today as my brother sent me a link to this Aaron Jones letter, A Message for Green Bay. I don’t even care if you don’t come back to my article this time. Read it 5 times if you want. This letter sums up my every feeling about football, not as a “omg look how great the Packers organization is!” … but as a tribute to what football means to me, why I loved playing it, and why I choose to write about it. And why I choose to write about all teams from a perspective of what they can be, even if I don’t always want them to be.

To Aaron, I don’t care that you’re playing for my team’s rival. Go rip it up, go have a day.

6. Baltimore Ravens (1-2) ⇩1

I don’t know if another team has more of a gauntlet to start the season. Chiefs in week 1, Cowboys last week, not Buffalo this week and the Bengals after that, right when Joe Burrow tends to start turning it on.

I’m a little concerned with the amount of running from Lamar Jackson. It almost feels like an overcompensation from the AFC Championship game where for some reason he seemed determined to withhold one of his major skills from his arsenal.

Derrick Henry and Justice Hill are more than capable of taking those hits. This version of Lamar needs his new, skinnier frame to hold up until February.

7. San Francisco 49ers (1-2) ⇩3

Can I say it? I’ll say it. Steve Wilks shouldn’t have been fired. This is ridiculous. The Panthers did him dirty by not promoting him to full head coach after making them inexplicably competitive as the interim head coach, then the Niners did him dirty when they used him as the scapegoat for losing in the Super Bowl.

This is the result of a fan culture where NFL success is measured in Super Bowl wins and nothing else. It hurts the game. And now the Niners talented defense has been thrashed in consecutive weeks.

8. Houston Texans (2-1) ⇩5

I’ll be happy to call last week’s stomping from the Vikings a blip, but that’ll take a quick turnaround. Luckily they get the spiraling Jags at home for a soft landing. That’s nice for them, but it’s also a classic trap game.

9. Pittsburgh Steelers (3-0) ⇧7

Before last season, I predicted Nick Herbig as my Defensive Rookie of the Year. Obviously that was a longshot and he needed some time to develop, and it didn’t help he was behind T.J. Watt and Alonzo Highsmith on the depth chart. But he’s here now, filling in for the injured Highsmith, and showing what I saw during his time with the Badgers.

In other news, Justin Fields is a pretty good QB. Who knew? Pretty much everyone as we told the Bears they forced him into play far too early, then gave up on him just so they could go and get Caleb Williams and start all over again.

Fields got better every year with the Bears, and now, through 3 games, he’s completed 73.3% of his passes. He’s efficient and exactly what the Steelers offense needs. I don’t know what happens when Russell Wilson is healthy, but Fields has earned himself the opportunity he never should’ve lost in Chicago.

10. Green Bay Packers (2-1) ⇧4

There was a lot of talk in the offseason about the NFC North potentially putting 3 teams in the playoffs. That possibility is off to a great start with the Vikings 3-0 and the Packers and Lions both 2-1. If the Packers beat the Vikings this Sunday, we could go into week 5 with all 3 teams at 3-1.

11. Seattle Seahawks (3-0) ⇧7

12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1) ⇩6

13. Los Angeles Chargers (2-1) ⇩4

J.K. Dobbins had a rougher week against Pittsburgh’s defense, which is to be expected. His first 2 weeks made him a target, and a really good defense shut him down. His role this week against the Chiefs will be impacted at least somewhat by Justin Herbert‘s availability.

If Herbert can’t go, that’s just one more name on a concerning injury report that includes OTs Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt, as well as edge Joey Bosa. Add in the upheld 1-game suspension for Derwin James, and the Bolts are in a tricky spot going up against the champs.

14. Dallas Cowboys (1-2) ⇩3

Is there a team out there more deserving of being poked with a stick? Like, do something. Be good, be bad, be mediocre, just don’t be… *gestures* … this.

15. New Orleans Saints (2-1) ⇔

Pick a lane.

16. New York Jets (2-1) ⇧7

Healthy Aaron Rodgers should concern the league, even if it’s healthy by some weird standards. Let’s just hope he doesn’t get measles before the playoffs.

17. Arizona Cardinals (1-2) ⇧2

18. Indianapolis Colts (1-2) ⇧4

19. Atlanta Falcons (1-2) ⇧1

20. Los Angeles Rams (1-2) ⇧7

21. Washington Commanders (2-1) ⇧8

I bet if you took the numbers from movement in the rankings from all teams and added them up, this is by far the biggest combined number on this site. Such a huge part of that is QB changes, be it a young, unproven QB showing an early spark, or a previous starter being replaced, for better or worse. Over in DC, it’s the former, and Jayden Daniels has some serious C.J. Stroud vibes.

The kind of athletic abilities Daniels has comes with the temptation to use it as a crutch, something he’s largely starting to avoid. It’s a delicate balance that can be detrimental at times… think Lamar Jackson in the AFC Championship game last season, where he seemed determined to stay in the pocket no matter what.

But when it’s in balance, teams are forced to choose, and it’s a hell of a choice to have to make. Do you stay back in coverage and give him quick throws and running room? Do you pressure him and risk not getting home, allowing him time to hit big throws down the field? Do you put a spy on him and essentially remove a defender from a normal coverage scheme?

After 2 weeks of no offensive turnovers and, holy crap, no punts, there’s a decent chance Daniels is about to start seeing some more elaborate defenses. They’ll be hiding their coverages and masking where the pressure is coming from, forcing him to make quicker decisions from last-second adjustments. His development will need to take the next step up, and if it does, look out.

22. Cincinnati Bengals (0-3) ⇩12

Cam Taylor-Britt made a phenomenal play against the Chiefs. And then he went and ran his mouth about the Commanders running a “college offense,” and then he doubled down calling it that after the game while admitting defeat. Dude, how are you not putting together in your head that you just said you got torched by a college offense?

Also, I think it’s time to start an Andrei Iosivas TD counter. He’s at 3 in 3 games so far. I could be wrong on every other prediction I make, but I’m so happy about this one. Just need Cincy to get it together on defense so his rise doesn’t get buried by poor team play.

23. Carolina Panthers (1-2) ⇧8

Don’t look at me, I’ve been singing Andy Dalton‘s praises for years. I thought the Bears should’ve kept him in to let Justin Fields develop, I thought the Saints should’ve brought him back instead of giving Derek Carr an absurd amount of money, and I thought he should’ve kept the starting job last season so Bryce Young would have more time to develop.

I don’t think the Panthers defense can hold up against better offenses, but at least they got the Red Rifle in place for a shootout.

24. Miami Dolphins (1-2) ⇩11

And now the dark side of a QB change. I don’t know when or if Tua Tagovailoa will be back, but Skylar Thompson isn’t it, and Tim Boyle is less it. I’m a little surprised, given Tua’s history, that the team wasn’t more prepared for the possibility of playing at least a stretch of games without him.

There are, of course, trade rumors floating around. Some have suggested Bryce Young, which is highly doubtful, while others have floated Russell Wilson. But… no, are you kidding me? Just because Justin Fields looks good, the Steelers aren’t about to trade Russ and his paltry cap number for draft scraps. Then they’d be in the same situation as the Dolphins.

This was a situation that should’ve been handled better in the offseason. And that’s not hindsight. I and many others have been saying this going back to last season. In 2023, they brought in Mike White as his backup on a 2-year contract. Then they cut him before this season, opting to go with Thompson as Tua’s backup, then bringing in Tim Boyle as the practice squad/3rd QB.

Fortunately, they’ll have Tyler Huntley as an option this week if Thompson can’t go (and should consider him even if Thompson can go), but it’s discouraging that someone like Huntley wasn’t on board much sooner in place of a weird signing like Boyle.

25. Vegas Raiders (1-2) ⇩8

When does #freedavanteadams start? Raiders are all over the place. Seems like a classic 25th Element.

26. Chicago Bears (1-2) ⇩5

Bench Caleb Williams now or you’ll ruin him. Other rookie QBs are starting to put it together, and that can’t be good for Williams psyche.

Also, enough of the talk about firing Matt Eberflus. You all know he’s a defensive-minded coach and the defense is the only thing that’s kept the Bears competitive so far, right? Yes, he’s ultimately responsible for the entire team, but the only thing I blame him for on offense right now is not benching Caleb Williams from the start and trotting him out there week after week to have his flaws exposed.

27. Denver Broncos (1-2) ⇧3

Let me see Bo Nix do that again before I start giving credit.

28. New England Patriots (1-2) ⇩4

29. Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3) ⇩3

If I could drop them further, I would. What a mess.

30. New York Giants (1-2) ⇧2

Malik Nabers looks like the real deal and Daniel Jones is still standing. That’s a good start. The nice thing about having a WR like Nabers is that even when Jones gets hurt, you’d think any QB can put it within the catch radius Nabers seems to have.

31. Cleveland Browns (1-2) ⇩6

I have a lot of fun with the 25th spot in the rankings, which is where I thought the Browns could stay all year. And then they proved to be so much worse.

Deshaun Watson is just bad. Maybe it’s still a matter of time, but how much time do you give him? How long before Kevin Stefanski starts coaching for his job? Luckily for Watson, his contract makes it extremely difficult to move on from him, but we have to be closing in on moving him to the bench.

They’ve got Jameis Winston just sitting there on his bottom shoulders, waiting for his turn. And don’t forget Dorian Thompson-Robinson, currently QB3 on the depth chart, who I said would take Watson’s spot by 2025.

32. Tennessee Titans (0-3) ⇩4

All I can think is that Will Levis was picked on so much for putting mayo in his coffee that he stopped doing it and now he lost his superpowers. It’s fine, Will, we were just having a laugh. Put ketchup in your coffee for all I care… just get it together, man.