2024 NFL Week 1 Power Rankings

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It’s been a long summer. Normally I would’ve had several power rankings throughout the draft, training camp, and preseason, but life got wild. Hit your team’s link in the table of contents if you’d rather skip my jabbering and get to it. But I’m watching you.

Just as I was ramping up for heated summer discussions about team uniforms, we were floored to lose Frankie Sir Fluffy Pants to a stroke. I know lots of people lose pets, but I’m a writer, and I honestly hit the worst writer’s block of my life for several weeks after that. I also officiate weddings, and I couldn’t even write a script. It was that bad. Imagine being an accountant and freezing up every time you see a number.

Then a couple months later, just as I was getting my writing chops back in line, we brought home two puppies, Charlie and Betty, aka the Spicy Pants Twins. Puppies are… a lot.

Now we’re at the precipice of week 1 in the NFL and I bring you my first power rankings of the 2024 season. This year will be slightly different. I’ll be starting some podcasting and other content creation ventures, so I’ll only be commenting on a handful of teams each week, but week 1 gets the full treatment. Because I love looking back to laugh or gloat at how right and wrong I was.

As always, may all your teams win or your coaches have to clean up puppy poop full of their wife’s hair. Oof, even I didn’t like writing that.

1. Kansas City Chiefs

I have a habit of putting the Super Bowl champions at the top and it doesn’t always work out well (See: Rams, 2023). As back-to-back champs, putting the Chiefs anywhere else would just be silliness.

They gave Patrick Mahomes a raise last year, Travis Kelce a raise this year, and locked down Chris Jones on a monster 5 year deal. Last year I said my ranking of the Chiefs depended on the latter’s presence, which is why they didn’t start last year at the top. Now they will.

Rashee Rice’s availability is no longer uncertain, at least to start the year, and they picked up Xavier Worthy in the 1st round of the draft. His speed will immediately cause issues for defenses and open up space for Rice, Kelce, and others.

If you’re wondering… isn’t he gonna say something about Harrison Butker? No, I’m not. Okay maybe a little.

Agree or disagree with what he said, he has the right to say it, and I have the right to make a funny meme about him that went semi-viral, mostly because far too many people get their news from memes and believed Kathy Ireland from the 1991 classic Necessary Roughness was competing for his job.

Literally none of this matters in my power rankings. I can’t think of a single time where I considered the kicker in my ranking. Should I? No.

2. Baltimore Ravens

Sorry Niners fans, it’s not you, it’s me. I can’t stop thinking this is Baltimore’s year, though I’ve been known to come to that conclusion often and I’ve yet to be right.

Lamar Jackson, Zay Flowers, Roquan Smith, Kyle Hamilton, the return of Mark Andrews and Keaton Mitchell, the addition of Derrick Henry and promotion of Trenton Simpson.

I’m aware that’s not a complete sentence. That’s my way of emphasizing that it’s a complete team, probably the most complete team in the NFL. And it’s not complete in the sense that there are no holes, but that there are so many positions with legitimate stars.

Now it’s a matter of staying healthy and learning from last year’s experience.

3. San Francisco 49ers

Is everyone good with Brock Purdy yet? Is he allowed to have a bad game this season without internet trolls trying to convince us he might be replaced. Spare me the “physical limitations” crap. Tom Brady was too slow, Joe Montana and Drew Brees were too short. It’s time to move on from that line.

The biggest draft pickup was 1st rounder Ricky Pearsall, an extremely well-rounded WR who fits their mold well. Even though the Niners will still have Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk back, there’s enough tension to tentatively look to the future and be ready for some frustration with targets.

If Christian McCaffrey and Trent Williams stay healthy, the Niners should be in the top 3 all season. But Deebo plus Aiyuk plus McCaffrey plus George Kittle is a lot of superstar mouths to feed.

4. Detroit Lions

Before anyone says this is too high, I need you to understand that I’m a Packers fan and this ranking rips at my soul. So no, it’s not too high. This is as Goldilocks of a ranking as you’ll ever see. I hate it, but fair is fair.

The only real gap on their roster was at corner, which they addressed by moving up to pick 24 and absolutely stealing Terrion Arnold. Brad Holmes has crushed the 1st round since he took over in 2021, and I have no doubt he did it again.

I despise them as a Packers fan; I love them as a football fan.

5. Houston Texans

I hope Stefon Diggs understands his role may be a bit more limited in Houston. This isn’t Buffalo where he got all the targets cause he was the only established talent.

C.J. Stroud is a young star with a rapport built up with Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and Dalton Schultz. Diggs needs to be prepared to complement that crew, not lead it.

After adding last season’s sack leader in Danielle Hunter to rush across from last season’s highest defensive draft pick and budding star Will Anderson, Jr., it’s easy to see why there’s so much hype.

6. Buffalo Bills

If I hear one more person say their “Super Bowl window is closing” I will dedicate an entire article to busting that idiotic phrase. I might do that anyway, cause now I’m hearing people say that about the Niners. Wswrongwitchu?

Josh Allen (Offensive Version) is 27 years old. He lost Diggs, but frankly, that might be good for him. He’s got a decent offensive line, a great running back in James Cook, and a WR in Khalil Shakir that I was saying even last year is ready to break out.

Then they drafted Keon Coleman, who only dropped down to them because he ran a 4.6 40. It’s Buffalo… who cares? No one needs him to burn defenders deep in the December snow. They need someone to go up and get whatever Allen throws at them, which is exactly where Coleman excels.

My confidence in those two getting open looks is because I expect a huge jump from Dalton Kincaid.

7. Green Bay Packers

So there I was, all nestled in and ready for a 6-11 rebuilding year, hoping Jordan Love would show a few signs that he could be good in the future. I enjoy watching a team exceed expectations while it’s happening. But then it’s a year later.

Last season, I expected 6-11 and got 9-8 and an impressive playoff win. I expected 20-15-3000 from Love and got 32-11-4500. Now it’s tempting to expect more.

The biggest reason is a defensive scheme overhaul that should better utilize the skills of a defensive depth chart full of 1st round picks.

Former DC Joe Barry is a good position coach and he was given 3 years as a full DC, but his scheme didn’t work. Not every coach is built for every job.

8. Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins might have the fastest group of offensive skill players literally ever.

So clearly Mike McDaniel would look to fill other needs in the draft, which they did with ED Chop Robinson in the 1st round and OT Patrick Paul in the 2nd. And then they added Tennessee burner Jaylen Wright (4.38 40) to their already blazing backfield and Malik Washington (1.53 split) to their WR corps. This is just silly.

Miami’s biggest obstacle this season will be the knowledge that they need to do whatever it takes to have the best record in the conference. All that speed is great in Miami, but not so great if they have to go through KC, Baltimore, Buffalo, or Cincinnati in January.

9. Cincinnati Bengals

Nothing against Jake Browning, but what the Bengals pulled off with him running the show is more a testament to their completeness than Browning’s potential.

He’s exactly what you want from a backup QB… someone who can come in for 4 games and go 2-2. So if Joe Burrow has a lingering injury at any point, hopefully he’ll recognize that he can take the time to recover so he’s there for the late-season stretch where he thrives instead of trying to playthrough it and ruining his season.

There are question marks as the team transitions away from mainstays Joe Mixon and Tyler Boyd, but they’ve got intriguing talent ready to replace them. Keep watching Andrei Iosivas. He’s got a year under his belt now, a few impressive plays in very limited rookie time, and Boyd’s departure moved him up the depth chart.

10. Philadelphia Eagles

See below.

11. Dallas Cowboys

You know that thing where two people don’t get along so you force them into a room together until they work it out? That’s pretty much what this is. I know there’s a long history of hatred between Cowboys and Eagles fans, but I’m out here saying nice things about the Lions and Bears and Vikings, so suck it up and play nice. Cause your teams are equally annoying and hard to rank.

The Cowboys did nothing in free agency, likely because they have several players due a massive payday. Micah Parsons has earned a huge bag and CeeDee Lamb just got one. Dak Prescott should be getting the highest AAV in NFL history, but anything less than a deep playoff run may be the end for him, and head coach Mike McCarthy, in Dallas. Victims of the ridiculous Super-Bowl-or-Bust mentality that’s invaded NFL fandom.

Now on to Philly, which suffered from a curious case of mistimed peak. With the way things ended, it’s easy to forget they started 10-1 last season. Then they fell flat on their face as their own fans insisted they weren’t actually that good and an alarming number of other fans demanded the banishment of the Tush Push. At first they said it was for fear of injury, but no one could point to any injuries as proof, so then it was because it was too unstoppable, until other teams tried it and literally whiffed.

In conclusion, I am forever amazed at how the fans of 2 teams with 0 championships in this century go into every season like the NFL is a league of 2 teams. So I’ll let y’all duke it out for the number 10 spot.

12. Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers are that team that could start out 8-1 and finish 8-9.

Not only is the back half of their schedule brutal for the teams they play, but also the scheduling of those games. Weeks 15-17 are Sunday at Philly, Saturday at Baltimore, then Wednesday at home against KC. They could very well go into week 18 bruised and battered and fighting to keep Mike Tomlin’s winning season streak alive.

Speaking of Tomlin, he’s the reason I have them this high. If Russell Wilson flops, you think Tomlin will keep going back to him? Not a chance.

If Russ doesn’t flop, hear me out. To me, Russ’s biggest issue throughout his career is that he came off as so fake. He spouted cliches like he owned the crystal ball trademark. Try being fake around Tomlin, I dare you.

Oh, and they also have one of the top defenses in the league. Because it’s the Steelers, of course they do.

13. Atlanta Falcons

Arthur Smith had to go. But like I said about Joe Barry, that doesn’t mean he’s a bad coach, it just means he’s not a head coach. Raheem Morris is a head coach, and while he may not have been an earth-shattering pick, he’s exactly what they need.

With the talent they already have, plus a steady presence in Kirk Cousins, I expect a big leap this season.

14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I’m in wait-and-see mode on how Baker Mayfield performs without Dave Canales running the offense. His replacement, Liam Coen, has very limited NFL experience.

He was OC for the Rams in 2022, which was their post-championship lost season that was marred by injuries to all their stars. However, what we did get from that season was this absolute offensive gem put together by none other than Baker Mayfield.

What I love most about this team is their combination of youth and experience across both sides of the ball. Veterans like Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are joined by rookie Jalen McMillan and impressive sophomore Trey Palmer. Rookie RB Bucky Irving will join 3rd year starter Rachaad White… both have great quickness so hopefully the running game will no longer be slamming them between the tackles.

On defense, Vita Vea is a monster presence, and he’s bringing Calijah Kancey along nicely.

There’s a lot of balance here, and balance is an important thing to have in January.

15. Jacksonville Jaguars

I want to put them higher, but I have to see it. I need to know the regression was a fluke, likely caused by an injury Trevor Lawrence foolishly tried to play through. Calvin Ridley was a disappointment… yeah, I whiffed on that one. But I think his departure will put the focus back on Christian Kirk, where it belongs.

The biggest and best change on defense… was a name change. Introducing Josh Hines-Allen! My man, good decision. I love that it was announced as a family legacy thing, but I think we all know what it is. This is self-promotion 101. Like many sportswriters, I use a service that automatically links a name to their pro-football-reference page. When a name is connected, it uses the most prominent player with that name. So you can see the problem.

There’s a ton of young talent on this defense. If the offense can find its way back, they could quickly move back up this list.

16. Cleveland Browns

We enter year 3 of the Deshaun Watson fully guaranteed contract. Over the first couple years, he played a total of 12 games and delivered 14 TDs, 9 INTs, and under 60% completion percentage. For that, he was paid just north of $91 million. As expected, the team restructured his contract again, which they’ll continue to do every offseason so they can function. Each time will push more money forward into void years, leaving them a massive bill at the end for years he likely won’t play.

Defense is great, and will continue to be be great. The biggest question mark, aside from Watson, will be the return of Nick Chubb at some point this season. I flexed in both of my fantasy leagues and drafted him… my way of saying I’ll still be in this when he comes back.

17. Vegas Raiders

I don’t dislike letting Aidan O’Connell sit and learn some more. I truly think he’s the future. But Gardner Minshew II makes them competitive now, Zamir White exploded when he got the chance, Davante Adams will be a top-3 WR as long as he plays, and adding Brock Bowers to Michael Mayer is a wild move that I absolutely love.

Vegas is my gut pick for an unexpected breakout team. They have a lot of talent in a lot of places, and now it’s time for Minshew Mania™️!

18. Indianapolis Colts

I’ll admit being wrong about Anthony Richardson. He landed in a great spot under Shane Steichen and this offense is perfect for him. Now him and Jonathan Taylor just have to stay healthy and take this offense to the next level.

They won’t have the previously mentioned Minshew to hold things together if Richardson goes down again, though they will have Joe Flacco, who has a bit of experience stepping in to hold a team’s season together.

19. Los Angeles Chargers

How much is Jim Harbaugh worth? Like truly, try to put a number of wins to him as a head coach. Or better yet, put a number of wins to him replacing Brandon Staley.

I’m going with 6.

I expect a leap forward from Justin Herbert, despite losing a lot of his targets. He now has the former Ravens backfield in his backfield, and a lot of offensive speed on the outside. Defense has a lot of talent, and I’m still waiting for a long stint of Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack playing at the same time.

As it usually is, health is the most important factor and will make or break the season for the Bolts.

20. Los Angeles Rams

I’ll never count them out, especially as Sean McVay keeps finding gems like Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams. But right now on paper, they don’t appear to be a playoff team.

They start the year with 36 year old Matthew Stafford being protected by Joe Noteboom, which is concerning. Noteboom was beaten out by impressive play from Alaric Jackson last year, but he’s suspended for the first two weeks.

The Rams added some great value on defense in the draft, so they’ll need those kids to grow up really fast.

21. Seattle Seahawks

I can’t believe I’m sitting here looking at a roster in 2024 and saying, “It all comes down to Geno Smith.”

So much of this team is stacked, but Geno presents the same questions as Baker Mayfield… who is he without Dave Canales? He was good last season, but not the same kind of good that got him a 9-figure contract.

22. Tennessee Titans

I want to put them higher because despite his deplorable coffee habits, I think Will Levis will be special. I also think Brian Callahan was a smart, under-the-radar hire who excels at boosting offensive line play and the running game, which can only help Levis in his development.

To add to that development, they used their top pick on JC Latham to lock down his blindside and give him the time to find his many veteran targets.

I like the idea of the Titans, but I think they’re a year or two away from it potentially being realized.

23. New York Jets

Speaking of a year or two away, that might be the first time Aaron Rodgers doesn’t have a microphone to force himself into the news cycle.

I hate that I did this, but I drafted him in one of my fantasy leagues. Ever since post-Olivia Munn, he’s been the worst kind of human being, but he’s been a hell of a QB regardless.

24. Chicago Bears

I still don’t think Caleb Williams came in with the mechanics to start right away. We see this all the time, where a high-ceiling QB is forced onto the field by impatient fans and coaches trying to save their jobs.

I get the Patrick Mahomes comparisons. The off-platform stuff Williams is able to do is impressive. But Mahomes spent his rookie year on the bench, honing his mechanics and making the scheme his second nature. His off-platform abilities are a result of him knowing the rules so well that he knows when to break them.

Maybe I’ll be wrong, maybe he’ll step in and become a star. But for every successful rookie QB, there are 10 flops. Maybe the flops were never good to begin with, but I think a lot of them are a result of poor schemes and desperate coaches.

The thing Williams definitely has going for him is a strong group of weapons. He has all the toys… crafty veteran Keenan Allen, legitimate star D.J. Moore, and exciting rookie Rome Odunze. The Bears defense also quickly went from bottom half to top third over the course of one season. This is a good setup for a young QB to thrive, if he’s given the time to do it.

25. New Orleans Saints

This season’s 25th Element. Keep running Derek Carr out there and see how far you get.

26. Minnesota Vikings

Now see, this is a case of a rookie QB being put into a position to succeed. At least it would’ve been if J.J. McCarthy didn’t read his knee up right away. Still, this means the team won’t be tempted to put him in, and he’ll presumably spend a year rehabbing and committing the playbook to memory. Don’t underestimate the value of study in the eventual process of creating muscle memory.

I don’t dislike the Vikings offense in general. Sam Darnold is a decent option, they’ve got two stud receivers, and Aaron Jones still has some really good football in him. And with T.J. Hockenson starting the year on PUP, they won’t feel obligated to force it to him 15 times a game.

The defense, however, needs an overhaul. 2025 draft should be defense, defense, and more defense.

27. Carolina Panthers

Is there a better example of why you shouldn’t force a rookie QB into playing right away?

The good news for Bryce Young is that unlike a couple other QBs I’ve mentioned so far, Young does have Dave Canales as his coach.

For the uninitiated on the prowess of the “QB Whisperer,” Canales was the Quarterbacks Coach and the Passing Game Coordinator for the Seahawks from 2018-2021. During that time, Russell Wilson completed 66.5% of his passes for 131 TDs to just 31 INTs, a 106.3 passer rating, 4 Pro Bowls, and an MVP runner-up. In 2022, Wilson went to Denver, where he immediately flopped. Badly. Meanwhile, Canales was once again the Quarterbacks Coach in Seattle, where he helped turn the tattered career of Geno Smith into a Comeback Player of the Year award. Then he rightfully earned an Offensive Coordinator job in Tampa Bay, where he helped revive the career of Baker Mayfield into a 3rd place finish in Comeback Player of the Year behind 39 year old Joe Flacco and Damar Hamlin, the guy who came back after almost dying on the field.

That’s a long way of saying he’s got a resume that should have Carolina fans excited for the possibility of really seeing what Bryce Young can do.

28. Arizona Cardinals

I like the direction Arizona is headed, and I think they’re building something that could be special. Eventually.

29. New England Patriots

STOP

30. Denver Broncos

FORCING

31. Washington Commanders

ROOKIE QBs

32. New York Giants

This ranking assumes a Daniel Jones injury. It’s not his fault. He’s got talent, but there’s some combination of a predisposition to injury and playing on the absolute worst field in the league.

There are some exciting young players on this team, but they need to solidify the QB position before those young players become veterans looking for their first real payday.

travis.bille@thehellgoingon.blog | Website

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