2024 1st Round Mock-ish Draft in Reverse Power Ranking Order
As is tradition now that it’s in its second year, the first of my mock drafts will address each team’s 1st round possibilities in reverse power ranking order of how they finished last season.
With the amount of trades that go through on draft day, trying to predict each team in a single spot is foolish, which is why I’ll also do that tomorrow as the draft approaches. But first, I’ll do it My Way. As always, may all your teams win or draft the next superstar.
32. Carolina Panthers (No Pick)
I’m weirdly confident in the Panthers heading into 2024 to… not be the worst team in the league this year. That might be a stretch.
They lost their best defensive player in a laughable trade, and they head into April 25th having to wait for April 26th. That was all thanks to trading away this pick to the Bears, along with D.J. Moore, their best offensive weapon from the year before.
I previously gave Bears GM Ryan Poles a lot of credit for that trade, but I’m starting to think the Panthers front office is just bad at this. Like, all of it.
Prediction: Eat way too much Detroit-style pizza on Day 1 and miss their first pick on Day 2
31. New England Patriots (Pick 3)
I’m really excited for the future of the Patriots. They have some solid pieces around the field, and despite wishing they would’ve stuck with Mac Jones, I get why it was best for both to move on from each other.
Jerod Mayo will be a fantastic coach. If they can find a good combination with new OC Alex Van Pelt and a unique skillset like Jayden Daniels, there’s enough talent elsewhere to make for a quick rebound.
Prediction: Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
30. Washington Commanders (Pick 2)
Yes, they need a franchise QB and yes, that should probably be Drake Maye and yes, that’s who I think they’ll draft. But after blowing up the defense last year and starting fresh with a new defensive-minded head coach, don’t be surprised if they trade down and gather up draft capital.
Dan Quinn and new ownership know they have at least a year of leeway, so building up the team around a QB before actually getting that QB would be the smart move.
Which is why they won’t do it. Still, if there’s a QB in this draft prepared to weather the storm, it’s Maye.
Prediction: Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina
29. Arizona Cardinals (Picks 4 and 27)
The Cards have built up 11 picks heading into the draft, and they need all of them. There are plenty of needs, and Kyler Murray badly needs some kind of target.
After that, a smart front office with input from Jonathan Gannon will likely look to build up the trenches. If they go skill position at pick 4, I fully expect their next 3-4 picks before the end of day 2 to be offensive or defensive line.
Prediction: (4) Marvin Harrison, Jr., WR, Ohio State and (27) Graham Barton, OL, Duke
28. Los Angeles Chargers (Pick 5)
If the Chargers keep this pick, they’ll need to address a position of need. So, like, all of them except QB. Literally every position is on the table.
After losing both Mike Williams and Keenan Allen in free agency, getting Justin Herbert some reliable targets will be important. Luckily for them, they’ll have their pick of some really good WR talent. They could even go TE and give Herbert a truly unique talent to throw to.
I don’t know how much say Jim Harbaugh will have in the draft room, but if he’s heeded, I could very well see the Bolts going for Brock Bowers. There’s also the possibility of trading down with the Vikings, who badly need a QB, and still having a chance at Bowers with pick 11.
Prediction: Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
27. New York Jets (Pick 10)
As is often the case, the Jets are in a tough spot of their own making. They’ve thoroughly screwed up any potential future with Zach Wilson and went all-in with… ugh, no, I refuse to make this about him.
But it is sorta about him. If any of Brock Bowers, Rome Odunze, or Malik Nabors falls to 10, I’m sure GM Rodgers will make the call. And they shouldn’t listen to him. Pick an OT to develop before the inevitable injury to one or both 33 year old newly-signed tackles.
Prediction: Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State
**Note** I’m not confident they’ll make this decision, but Fuaga is an NFL-ready RT who could be serviceable or better at LT in a pinch. If he makes it this far, they should run the pick up to the podium.
26. New York Giants (Pick 6)
The Giants have a lot of needs and only 6 picks. If a top QB drops, they might take a shot, but the smart move would be to use that leverage to get at least 3 picks on days 2 and 3. They can still swap 1sts with someone and get decent value around 15-25 while gathering more capital.
But like the Commanders, I don’t think they’ll do it. I don’t know if it’s a Northeast thing or a high visibility market thing, but it seems like they’re more interest in the splash pick than longterm success. One of Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels, or J.J. McCarthy will almost certainly be available at 6, so I expect they’ll take whoever is left, despite their insistence that Daniel Jones is their QB.
Prediction: J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan
**Potential Longshot** Trade up to pick 2 for Maye, who would be sensational in a Brian Daboll system.
25. Denver Broncos (Pick 12)
Do the Broncos still have their credentials to get into the draft room on day 1? I’m sure the Walmart people are on top of it but still, someone should double-check.
With a 1st round pick for the first time since 2021, a draft in which they crushed it in the first 3 rounds, Broncos Country has a lot of needs. Like, A LOT of needs. They pretty much need everything they didn’t get in the first 3 rounds of 2021.
Prediction: Get super anxious about the concept of drafting in the 1st round and trade out of it. Or reach for Bo Nix, QB, Oregon
24. Tennessee Titans (Pick 7)
Just pick Joe Alt. Don’t get cute. If he’s there, he’s the pick. Lock down the blindside for the next decade and let Will Levis grow without having to hear footsteps every time he drops back.
Prediction: Joe Alt, LT, Notre Dame
23. Minnesota Vikings (Picks 11 and 23)
There’s plenty of talk that the Vikings could package these picks to move into the top 5 for a QB. I could see it happening, but I think it would be a poor decision.
Kevin O’Connell’s offense is very QB-friendly and has a ton of talented pass catchers. Reaching for a QB would hamper their ability to try to fill the massive hole that is their defense. A smart draft would be pass rusher or corner at 11 and if O’Connell thinks they could fit, a slight reach for Bo Nix or Michael Penix, Jr. at 23.
Prediction: (11) Byron Murphy II, IDL, Texas and (23) Michael Penix, Jr., QB, Washington
22. Atlanta Falcons (Pick 8)
If the Falcons pick an offensive skill player at 8, I’m banning them from the top 10 in my power rankings. They already have so many weapons they could never figure out how to use. Stop stacking new ones on top.
After picking up free agent Kevin King, I’m certain the Falcons secondary needs help. Pick a damned corner before A.J. Terrell gives up.
Prediction: Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo
21. New Orleans Saints (Pick 14)
I know it’s not a contest, but this is probably the most BPA (best player available) pick in the 1st round. They aren’t looking to fill a need; they have all the needs. A lot of positions on the field are either mediocre or old.
Prediction: Malik Nabors, WR, LSU
20. Chicago Bears (Picks 1 and 9)
As I mentioned earlier, I gave Ryan Poles far too much credit for the Panthers trade that landed them D.J. Moore and this year’s top pick, among others. I’m now convinced the Panthers called him and that was their first offer. Nothing else Poles has done for the Bears has been remotely close to being that successful.
Enter Caleb Williams, the Bears next QB, unless Poles is actually smarter than I think and he trades down. But he won’t, and Williams won’t get the time he desperately needs to develop, and in a few years we’ll be comparing him to Daniel Jones.
To be clear, I think Williams has immense potential with time and good coaching. And I think he’ll get neither.
With pick 9, they should really look in the trenches. If one of the top WRs drops, they could take a swing, but OT and Edge are bigger needs. If Joe Alt is there, they should take him, but I doubt he makes it past Tennessee at 7. An Edge would be a smart addition here.
Prediction: (1) Caleb Williams, QB, USC, and (9) Laiatu Latu, ED, UCLA
**Possible, not probable** Trade down to 15-20, get more picks on days 2-3, and take LT Olumuyiwa Fashanu. Or take him at pick 9.
19. Cincinnati Bengals (Pick 18)
The Bengals don’t have any dire needs, just places they can get better. I know it’s tempting to think Jake Browning was some diamond in the rough, but the reality is that he’s a smart guy who knew how to benefit from good coaching and immense talent.
But this is Joe Burrow’s team, and when he’s on the field, they contend for Super Bowls. With Mike Gesicki coming in to fill the seam, they can afford to look at deepening their WR room with some slot talent. They could potentially trade down here so it’s not as much of a reach.
Prediction: Ladd McConkey, WR, Georgia
18. Seattle Seahawks (Pick 16)
It’s always a challenge to sort out the draft direction of a relatively good team with a new coach.
But even with that new coach, John Schneider remains the GM, they need offensive lineman, and there are some good athletes at this spot who can play multiple line positions.
Prediction: Troy Fautanu, OL, Washington
17. Las Vegas Raiders (Pick 13)
What better opportunity would there be for Aiden O’Connell than to already have DaVante Adams and then have a top WR in the draft fall in their laps?
Prediction: Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
16. Jacksonville Jaguars (Pick 17)
This is a tough one. Jacksonville isn’t really bad at any one position. They filled a lot of holes in free agency, and quite competently. For example, if I knew they’d be losing Calvin Ridley, I’d say they need to look at receivers. But then they went and got Gabriel Davis and Devin Duvernay (don’t sleep on Duv). It looked like they might have a future hole at Edge, then they locked down Josh Allen Defensive Version. Offensive line, defensive interior, secondary… everywhere they had a perceived weakness was plugged.
I like that strategy because it gives them a lot of freedom in the 1st round of the draft. Allen and Travon Walker will be critical pieces of their defensive scheme, so I see them getting another Edge to keep that pressure in all game and season long.
Prediction: Jared Verse, ED, Florida State
15. Pittsburgh Steelers (Pick 20)
Offensive line is a big need. They could go wide receiver here, but Russell Wilson has lost a lot of mobility, so if you want him to cook, he needs time. Way more time than Kenny Pickett got last year.
As last year’s 1st round pick, Broderick Davis struggled but is still a high-upside OT for either side of the line. Dan Moore, Jr. is maybe solid backup, and Russ needs better if he wants to play a few more years.
Prediction: JC Latham, OT, Alabama
14. Indianapolis Colts (Pick 15)
A lot of things happen in the top half of the 1st round. It really only takes one team making a surprising and/or befuddling move to set a lot of other wheels in motion. Ultimately, I’m betting on teams running on offensive and defensive line bulk., and QBs going earlier than expected.
The result is that finesse positions like WR and Edge drop, but with the second contract price tag at those spots, teams won’t let them drop out of the 1st round. That 5th year option for 1st round picks is crucial for cap management.
All this is to say I don’t think an edge rusher is the Colts biggest need, but you can’t turn down a bargain on a stud.
Prediction: Dallas Turner, ED, Alabama
13. Los Angeles Rams (Pick 19)
It’s really incredible how quickly the Rams went from selling their souls for a Super Bowl to being competitive again. They really only lost one year and are somehow back on track. Alaric Jackson has solidified the blind side, Kyren Williams emerged as an exceptional back, and Puka Nacua is a perfect compliment to Cooper Kupp.
They added some solid pieces to the secondary in free agency, but with Aaron Donald’s retirement, the defensive line needs help.
Prediction: Darius Robinson, DL, Missouri
12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Pick 26)
If you believe Baker Mayfield is the right QB for this team, then the Bucs are surprisingly complete. A few below average gaps, but nothing that can be immediately addressed by the 26th pick.
Frankly, I say take a swing. Either add more beef to an already good defensive line, or add the fastest player in the draft. In any draft.
Prediction: Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas
11. Philadelphia Eagles (Pick 22)
There are a surprising amount of question marks for a team that had multiple 1st round picks last year right after almost winning the Super Bowl. Philly often focuses on the trenches with high picks, but the secondary needs help yesterday. There should be a few good ones still available at 22.
Prediction: Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
10. Dallas Cowboys (Pick 24)
It was interesting looking at the Cowboys projected depth chart and then seeing what other analysts consider a “need.” I tend to look specifically at whether there’s a player available who would immediately upgrade an important position. There should be a few OTs still left at 24 that would be an upgrade at RT.
Prediction: Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia
9. Cleveland Browns (No Pick)
We’re in year 3 of Deshaun Watson’s contract. How wild is that? It feels like it flew by, which it kinda did considering he’s hardly played. After 2 seasons and just under $100 million later, the Browns have 2,000 yards passing and another year without their 1st round pick. Blessings.
Prediction: Try to get back into the 1st round but get laughed at by every team still pissed at them for the Watson contract
8. Green Bay Packers (Pick 25)
How many 1st round picks can be on one defense? Let’s find out.
Currently the answer is 7, all picked by the Packers starting with Kenny Clark in 2016. 6 of them are starters, with last year’s pick Lukas Van Ness still a rotational player. It’s also worth noting that Preston Smith (pick 38) and Xavier McKinney (pick 36) were at the top of the 2nd round from other teams. The Packers offense has just a single 1st round pick: Jordan Love.
Prediction: Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa
7. Houston Texans (No Pick)
Worth it.
Prediction: W
6. Miami Dolphins (Pick 21)
Part of why I like doing my mock this way first is to see scenarios where a team has a weirdly high pick for how well they played the previous year. I don’t think putting them at 6th in power rankings at the end of last season is a stretch at all, but because they dropped a playoff game in -30 wins chills to the eventual Super Bowl champs, they get a much higher pick than weaker teams below them.
The departure of Christian Wilkins to the Raiders leaves a hole on the defensive line.
Prediction: Jer’Zhan Newton, DL, Illinois
5. Buffalo Bills (Pick 28)
Pretty much everyone thinks this should be a WR. I actually think Buffalo is fine for passing targets. Another solid corner would let Buffalo’s defense let Rasul Douglas roam and make the big time plays he always has.
Prediction: Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson
4. Detroit Lions (Pick 29)
A very good offensive line and plenty of playmakers means you pick pass rushers. Lots of pass rushers. Or you trade down. Can’t let Detroit fans get too greedy.
Prediction: Chop Robinson, ED, Penn St
3. San Francisco 49ers (Pick 31)
There are plenty of ways the Niners could go, one of which involves the possibility of trading Brandon Aiyuk. But the best of all worlds is to get a smart, high impact defensive player to carry on their defensive legacy. There might be a few available, even at 31.
Prediction: Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama
2. Baltimore Ravens (Pick 30)
The Ravens are in embarrassment of riches territory. There aren’t a lot of positions to fill, but Lamar Jackson could use some consistent production from an outside WR.
Prediction: Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas
1. Kansas City Chiefs (Pick 32)
Despite all the issues at WR, the Chiefs pulled it together and leaned on newcomer Rashee Rice on their way to a second consecutive title.
Then Rice got himself in trouble, which I won’t speculate on, but it looks like it’ll cost him some time. After replacing deep-threat-dropsies Marquez Valdez-Scantling, they went and replaced him with deep-threat-dropsies Marquise Brown.
Time to put some 1st round capital into some reliable targets before Travis Kelce hangs ‘em up.
Prediction: Troy Franklin, WR, Oregon
Don’t be surprised to see: Ja’Tavion Sanders, TE, Texas… a perfect Kelce protege.
