Watching Saquon Barkley last Sunday night was magical, but while the MVP talk surrounding him is warranted, it’s unfortunately extremely premature. None of this is to say what’s right or wrong, whether he has or will earn it, or what milestones are necessary for MVP consideration.
This is nothing more than historical precedent.
Current Context
Through 11 games, Saquon Barkley is on pace to break the single season marks for both rushing yards and total yards from scrimmage. It seems reasonable to think breaking either record should be enough. However, it’s worth looking at who holds those records.
Record-Setting Rejection
Most Rushing Yards in a Season
Eric Dickerson holds the single season rushing record with 2,105 yards in 1984.
He took 2nd in MVP voting that year behind Dan Marino, who just broke the record for passing TDs in a season. Wait, did I say Marino broke the record? I meant to say shattered. He shattered the previous record of 36 passing TDs by George Blanda in 1961 by throwing 48, a number that held up for 20 years until Peyton Manning threw 49 in 2004.
In other words, if you’re and RB and want a chance at MVP, you gotta hit that big season when a QB doesn’t. The year after Dickerson’s record, the MVP vote was all but split between Marcus Allen and Walter Payton, both RBs.
Most Total Scrimmage Yards in a Season
Chris Johnson holds the single season record for total yards from scrimmage with 2,509 in 2009, including 2,006 rushing.
Johnson didn’t even get a single MVP vote. Wasn’t even considered, as the vote was split amongst 4 QBs with numbers that today would seem fairly pedestrian. The award instead went to Peyton Manning, who threw for 4,500 yards with 33 TDs and 16 INTs.
Pace yourselves
Just for fun, here are the top 4 Vegas line bets for MVP with the numbers they would finish with at their current pace.
- Josh Allen, QB, Bills
3,930 passing yards, 28 TDs, 8 INTs, 488 rushing yards, 8 rushing TDs - Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens
4,325 passing yards, 38 TDs, 4 INTs, 849 rushing yards, 4 rushing TDs - Saquon Barkley, RB, Eagles
2,151 rushing yards, 397 receiving yards, 2,548 yards from scrimmage, 19 total TDs - Jared Goff, QB, Lions
4,267 passing yards, 31 TDs, 14 INTs (rushing stats insignificant, though he does have a 7-yard TD catch)
Even at his record-setting pace, Saquon is still trailing (not that Vegas is always right, they’re just not stupid). He’s also the only RB currently considered, as Derrick Henry is close to him in rushing yards, but has played one more game.
Additional Factors
First, while the awards aren’t typically given out until deep in the playoffs, here is your annual reminder that the NFL Honors are regular season awards. How the Eagles or Ravens or Lions or Bills do in the playoffs is irrelevant as the votes are cast before the playoffs start.
And finally, if Saquon breaks both records and doesn’t win the MVP, get ready to hear from the Asterisk Army because he did it in 17 games. If this were a 16 game season, his pace would leave him at 2,025 yards rushing and 2,399 total scrimmage yards.
The only way to avoid the controversy is to have a few more 255 yard games and shatter Dickerson’s record Marino-style. It’s also worth noting that the MVP race can turn into a bit of a popularity content, and of all the names mentioned in this entire article, only one of them jumped over a guy backwards in what will likely be the highlight of the year.
As always, may all your teams win or your Coach of the Year not have Saquon on his team anymore and be fired.
