The top 10 is a mess. Honestly, once you get past 3, maybe 4, what are we even doing?
I can maybe understand Philly losing to another top team, but they didn’t just lose. Dallas beat them down. Miami decided 3-1/2 quarters was enough football. KC has some opinions about their loss, just not any valid ones. And the Lions getting stomped by the Bears is just… I can’t even… I almost dropped them out of the top 10 completely.
But what separates those teams for the tiers below them is that they aren’t lacking for talent and have no glaring holes. They just hit a rut. And as we’ve seen in this league a hundred times over, breaking out of that rut and grabbing momentum can happen fast.
And late season momentum has won plenty of unlikely ‘ships.
As always, may all your teams win or your foot stay behind the line. Stop it Rex Ryan, no one was talking to you.
- 1. Baltimore Ravens (10-3)
- 2. San Francisco 49ers (10-3)
- 3. Dallas Cowboys (10-3)
- 4. Philadelphia Eagles (10-3)
- 5. Miami Dolphins (9-4)
- 6. Kansas City Chiefs (8-5)
- 7. Detroit Lions (9-4)
- 8. Cleveland Browns (8-5)
- 9. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-5)
- 10. Houston Texans (7-6)
- 11. Denver Broncos (7-6)
- 12. Buffalo Bills (7-6)
- 13. Cincinnati Bengals (7-6)
- 14. Green Bay Packers (6-7)
- 15. Indianapolis Colts (7-6)
- 16. Los Angeles Rams (6-7)
- 17. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7)
- 18. Seattle Seahawks (6-7)
- 19. Atlanta Falcons (6-7)
- 20. New Orleans Saints (6-7)
- 21. New York Jets (5-8)
- 22. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6)
- 23. Tennessee Titans (5-8)
- 24. New York Giants (5-8)
- 25. Chicago Bears (5-8)
- 26. Minnesota Vikings (7-6)
- 27. Los Angeles Chargers (5-8)
- 28. Vegas Raiders (5-8)
- 29. Washington Commanders (4-9)
- 30. Arizona Cardinals (3-10)
- 31. New England Patriots (3-10)
- 32. Carolina Panthers (1-12)
1. Baltimore Ravens (10-3)
Say what you want about Lamar Jackson, and a lot of people have, but he’s putting together an MVP season. I’m not saying he’ll win it or that another player isn’t or won’t be equally or more deserving, but I am saying his numbers are MVP numbers. At his current pace, he would end the season with over 3,800 yards passing, more than 800 rushing, and 27 total TDs, all while completing 66% of his passes.
Oh, and in case I haven’t said this a hundred times yet, he’s the single most dominant player on the field at all times. On every snap, you haven’t to account for him being able to sling a perfect deep ball, hit a crosser in stride or a TE down the seam, or shake off his first few reads, escape, and then either take off with it, or slip back into the pocket and check his receivers again.
And that’s just if it’s a pass. Imagine being an edge rusher having to defend an RPO against Lamar. His option read freezes so often just from the threat of Lamar running. There is nothing on a football field that he can’t or won’t do.
2. San Francisco 49ers (10-3)
If there’s a second-most dominant football player on any field, it could very well be Christian McCaffrey. At his current pace, he would end the season with over 1,500 yards rushing to go along with 68 catches for 570 yards receiving and 22 total TDs. I’m sure he’ll be in the OPOY conversation, where he may have to compete with a 2,000 yard receiver, but I think if he finishes with more total yards, he’ll get the trophy.
Obviously that’s not the trophy he wants, though. And no, I’m not talking about MVP… the league has been training us for years to understand that’s a QB award, so settle down.
To get the last game of the season luxury yacht would be easier with the top seed, which they definitely made easier with head-to-head wins over the other 10-3 teams. And not just wins… blowouts. Even as I glance down my rankings, it’s hard not to see that the Niners beat the next 2 teams by a combined score of 84-29, putting up 42 on both.
Despite momentum shifts throughout the season, it looks to me like the Niners and Ravens have both put some separation between themselves and anyone else. And if that does end up being the Super Bowl, we get a preview on Christmas night.
3. Dallas Cowboys (10-3)
The immediate argument against everything I just said about the Niners is that Dallas is a completely different team than the one we saw all the way back in week 5.
To put it in perspective, against San Francisco, Dak Prescott threw 3 picks. In the 8 games since that night, he’s throw 2. Some kind of switch flipped in the week after that game. Now Cowboys fans have to hope he can carry it through, cause peaking too early in the season can lead to a messy January.
4. Philadelphia Eagles (10-3)
The general feeling I get from fans is that there’s something fundamentally wrong with the Eagles and it’s now been exposed.
In response, I’ll say that if there’s something fundamentally wrong, there are few teams with the level of trustworthy veterans needed to sort it out.
It’s shaky right now. We know that. But we also know the loud doubts about the team will make Jalen Hurts work twice as hard.
5. Miami Dolphins (9-4)
The only thing worse than losing a game after being up by 13 with 3 minutes left is losing it to a rookie QB as he has his lightbulb moment. You know, that game where you see it come together and it catapults a player towards stardom.
I’m just saying, if Will Levis goes to the Hall of Fame someday, the Dolphins defense will be on that video. No one wants that. I still remember the Bengals getting smoked by a Brett Favre TD to Kitrick Taylor. I didn’t even have to look that up.
Despite the dominance of Miami’s running game, there are still question marks on the availability of Tyreek Hill. That said, I think it would be good for Tua Tagovailoa to be forced out of focusing on Tyreek. Patrick Mahomes fell into that trap and it lost the Chiefs an AFC championship game.
6. Kansas City Chiefs (8-5)
What if I did an entire analysis here on every player on the Chiefs but didn’t mention anything about how last week’s game ended?
Like everyone, I had and still have opinions. I don’t know that I’d say I have a side, and if I did, there would be times where I’d be as far across the line as Kadarius Toney. So I’ll just say this… catch the ball and we’re not having this conversation.
Mahomes lashed out wildly right to the face of Josh Allen, which was uncalled for, but he realized that and apologized.
I do get his argument, because apparently Toney had been doing this all game without a call, so you don’t suddenly call something that hasn’t been called all game. If there’s an issue I have with refs this year, it’s definitely consistency.
But at the same time, Andy Reid doesn’t need a warning to tell him his receiver is lining up offsides and shouldn’t be. This isn’t a “get away with it if you can” situation. These coaching staffs are big enough that someone up in the Chiefs booth or along the sideline should’ve caught it earlier and told Toney to watch it so he doesn’t *ahem* get called on a critical play late in the game.
And finally, because I have yet to see this side of it brought up, imagine if it wasn’t called. No, seriously, it doesn’t get called and that incredible impromptu hook-and-ladder TD stands and the Bills fail to tie or retake the lead. You honestly think Bills Mafia would let that slide? It’s not like it was subtle; everyone saw it even before we saw it. He was well past the line.
Basically, as so often happens, we’re having this conversation because we’re not having that conversation. And it’s only coming up because of the play that resulted, mind you, several seconds after the flag was thrown. If it was an incomplete pass, I’d be in here talking more about the feet-like hands of the Chiefs receivers.
7. Detroit Lions (9-4)
The Bears? Really? Have some pride.
Get it, because they’re the Li… shut up, that’s funny.
8. Cleveland Browns (8-5)
I don’t t think I or really anyone could explain what the crap the Browns are doing with Joe Flacco. His reward for going out and lighting it up was a trip to the practice squad.
Somehow the Browns players keep performing, despite the absolute trainwreck of a front office. They’re so lucky Kareem Hunt was still available.
9. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-5)
I’ll give Trevor Lawrence a pseudo-pass for having to play with an injury. The offense still put up 27 against a really good Browns defense.
But the Jags defense gets no such pass for giving up 31 points to Joe Flacco.
10. Houston Texans (7-6)
C.J. Stroud will likely sit out the week, which has to be tough for a young QB deep in a playoff race. The good news is the Texans have a capable backup in Davis Mills and a still very winnable game against the Titans. The bad news is Mills will still start the game on the bench as Case Keenum is getting the start.
Such is the year of the wandering backup.
11. Denver Broncos (7-6)
You have to think Courtland Sutton is looking at his last contract extension and seeing a missing zero. He keeps playing like this, and 2024 looks like a good time to start talking to the Walmart people about getting that zero stamped on.
12. Buffalo Bills (7-6)
The Bills are scary. I’m not kidding. I said a while back that the loss of Matt Milano hurt bad and would take some time to sort out the defense. After reeling through the middle of the season with no defensive identity, they’re still hanging onto playoff hope and some momentum after beating the defending champs. That schedule doesn’t get easier, though.
13. Cincinnati Bengals (7-6)
I’m impressed by Jake Browning, but also skeptical, mostly because there now seems to be this thought going around that the Bengals offensive success is a system thing. We really need to retire the whole system QB thing. If Browning keeps playing well, it might just be that he’s a decent QB.
But he’s not Joe Burrow. That said, Bengals fans would be ecstatic to find out he’s Jeff Hostetler.
14. Green Bay Packers (6-7)
The absolute torching of Jordan Love and the Packers all across the media after the Giants loss was hilarious. Stephen A was out here acting like he was personally aggrieved.
Young teams are inconsistent. I’ve said that a million times and I’ll say it a million more. If we’re still having this conversation in 2 years, I’ll be concerned. But for now, I expected 6, maybe 7 wins from the Packers this year, so they’re already well ahead of expectations.
15. Indianapolis Colts (7-6)
HUGE game for the Colts this week. There are 6 AFC teams with a 7-6 record, only 2 will get into the playoffs, and the Colts get one of them at home for the first week of NFL Saturdays.
16. Los Angeles Rams (6-7)
I had the Rams lower last week and brought them up after a loss. Because there are losing losses, and there are winning losses. Last week they took the best team in the NFL right to the wire and lost on a walk off punt return.
Rams are another scary playoff team if they get in. There are still a bunch of guys on this team with rings and the mindset needed to navigate towards another.
17. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7)
When the Bucs get a lead, they shift heavily towards the run, which is weird cause they’re a terrible running team. Rachaad White is a slot receiver. Let Baker Mayfield throw him some Texas and screens and stop slamming that poor man between the tackles.
18. Seattle Seahawks (6-7)
I’m having a hard time moving Seattle around too much after this absolutely brutal stretch of games. Niners-Cowboys-Niners-Eagles… that’s just sinister. Mercifully, it lightens up quite a bit after Philly this week, but playoff hopes could be fading by then if they lose now.
19. Atlanta Falcons (6-7)
Falcons are still tied for the lead in the worst division. I kinda need them to take it and then maybe sneak in a playoff win so I can justify my preseason excitement for them. It does seem like Desmond Ridder is starting to figure things out with his young receivers.
20. New Orleans Saints (6-7)
Of the NFC South leaders, I have the least hope for the Saints. Even in a blowout win over the worst team in the league, Derek Carr still looks like an overpaid mess. The good news is Jamaal Williams, aka my favorite player in the world, is back out there running hard. I’ll root for the Saints just a little bit so maybe he’ll get another interview.
21. New York Jets (5-8)
I think we’ve reached a point where Zach Wilson is completely numb to the up-and-down opinions of him. If that was the strategy, well done.
22. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6)
So it turns out maybe Matt Canada maybe wasn’t the problem and there are actual real problems with the Steelers offense. Or, and I know this might shock readers to hear me say, but maybe a young offense is inconsistent because it’s a young offense.
23. Tennessee Titans (5-8)
Will Levis has arrived! But is it too late? Who cares, Levis is playing for the starting gig in 2024 and beyond. They e got some great pieces around him, and should do what they can to keep DeAndre Hopkins around.
24. New York Giants (5-8)
Tommy DeVito is writing a story, so one has to wonder what happens to Daniel Jones. Cutting him after the season would carry a $70 million dead cap hit, and it’s doubtful anyone wants him in a trade unless the Giants cover a big chunk of base salary. It might be more prudent to keep both DeVito and Jones. Dare I say, 2-QB system?
25. Chicago Bears (5-8)
I hope Justin Fields is keeping all the receipts.
26. Minnesota Vikings (7-6)
Apparently the Vikings have seen enough of Joshua Dobbs. Perhaps he’ll stick around and wait for another shot, or he’ll just wait for another team to need a last-minute injury replacement, learning another new playbook on the plane, and wow us all over again.
27. Los Angeles Chargers (5-8)
I originally didn’t plan on saying anything about the Thursday night game between these 2 as this is supposed to be pre-week 15 rankings. I’ve kept the rankings exactly where they were, which I feel like shouldn’t be in doubt since I’m outright admitting I had the Chargers ahead of the Raiders.
But as I sit here sorting out what I saw last night, news came in that head coach Brandon Staley and GM Tom Telesco have been fired. The latter was a little bit surprising, as one would think Telesco would be given another shot with a new coach, but he made the mistake of sticking with Staley after last season, and now he’s paying the price. I imagine he thought he could go piece by piece, buying a year by firing Joe Lombardi, then another by furing Staley, but the Spanos family hit him with a silly pitch.
I’d say it’s unfortunate, but I can’t say it’s unwarranted. Now that they’re both out, the most interesting decision left is that Giff Smith, not Kellen Moore, was named interim head coach. One wonders if Moore would’ve gotten the job if the offense had been more productive the past few weeks.
For an especially spooky take, here’s Brandon Staley just a few weeks ago unknowingly predicting his own demise.
28. Vegas Raiders (5-8)
As for the Raiders, I’ll gladly move them up next week cause I’ve been excited about Aiden O’Connell for quite a while and he torched the Chargers this time.
Keep in mind this is the team he faced in his first career start when he was sacked 7 times, 6 of which came from Khalil Mack. To go out there and perform at this level knowing those footsteps were just around the corner is remarkable. It also shows a lot of trust in his offensive line.
I’m also loving the attitude from Antonio Pierce. The moment the day comes when they can announce him as the new full-time coach, Mark Davis needs to do it and do it loudly. He screwed this up with Rich Bisaccia, so it’s crucial to get it right this time.
29. Washington Commanders (4-9)
Should be very interesting to see how the Commanders come out of this extremely late-season bye week. Lots of players and coaches looking to keep their jobs.
30. Arizona Cardinals (3-10)
I kinda like the Cards role this year. 3 of their last 4 games are playoff teams, and I smell some spoiling on the way.
31. New England Patriots (3-10)
Word has spread that it’s already been decided to move on from Bill Belichick after the season. And then people started talking about the Oats trading him.
Pro tip, if you want to trade someone, don’t tell everyone you don’t want him anymore. No one is giving up draft picks for someone Robert Kraft already plans to remove.
32. Carolina Panthers (1-12)
I feel for Panthers fans. Worst record in the league and no 1st round draft pick to make it worth it. My one prediction about the Panthers is their next coach will be an unknown, cause I don’t see an established name coach wanting to work for David Tepper.
